What bonds yield in real terms — and what gold therefore costs

What bonds yield in real terms — and what gold therefore costs

Each line is the real yield of inflation-protected US government bonds across the maturities, on a single trading day. The real rate is the opportunity cost of gold: what the bond market pays in real terms is forgone by anyone holding metal instead — below zero you pay for holding bonds.

On 03/08/2021 the whole curve was negative — from -1.86 % at five years to -0.37 % at thirty. Anyone holding bonds then lost money in real terms; holding gold cost nothing. Today the same curve runs between 2.35 % and 3.07 % — so the opportunity cost is fully back.

U.S. Department of the Treasury, “Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve Rates” (TIPS); reference dates today 06/11/2026 · a year ago 06/11/2025 · 2021 low 03/08/2021. Series from 22/02/2010. Shown are real yields, already adjusted for expected inflation — they are therefore not comparable with the familiar nominal rates. The comparison day is the trading day with the lowest 10-year real rate; the lows of the other maturities fall on other days, and a curve built from five separate lows would be a day that never existed. ⚠️ The maturities reach back to different points: 5, 7 and 10 years from 2003, 20 years from 2004, 30 years only from 2010 — so statements about the full series are only possible for the shorter maturities. The data come from the United States; outside the dollar area the exchange rate and a different inflation rate come on top. A relationship between real rates and the gold price is historically documented but not stable — it was clearly negative until 2021 and has inverted since.