Rates & market environment

Real rate vs. gold price — and why the rule does not hold right now

Real rate against the gold price: line chart showing the largely inverse movement of the real rate and the gold price, and their current parallel rise.

Price drivers

Real rate vs. gold price — and why the rule does not hold right now

Gold pays no interest. When the real rate (the yield after inflation) falls, holding gold costs less forgone return — historically the two therefore move in opposite directions. At present they are rising together: the real rate sits at 2.63 %, as high as it was before the financial crisis — and gold is near its record anyway.

Gold price (US dollars per ounce) Real rate 10 years (TIPS)

Co-movement until 2021: -0.84 since 2022: 0.54

London reference price in US dollars and the real 10-year yield of US government bonds (TIPS), monthly values 2003–2026. Real rates: U.S. Department of the Treasury; gold prices from our own data. The series starts in 2003 because there is no continuous TIPS curve before that. Lowest level -1.16 % (07/2021), highest 3.14 % (10/2008). The co-movement is measured as the correlation between the real rate and the log gold price: until the end of 2021 it stood at -0.84 — strongly inverse — and over the past five years at 0.54. The real rate is therefore a strong driver, but not the only one: the dollar, crises and central bank purchases all play a part.

Real Interest Rate & Opportunity Cost of Gold

Where the numbers come from

This chart is calculated from our own price recordings. It is recalculated twice a day — after the daily close and after the London reference price at 16:30.

our own measurement Our own daily closing prices for the metals — new values every trading day
external source US Treasury — real yield curve (TIPS) — new values every trading day

The Chart view shows the most recently calculated state. The Image version — including the one for sharing and downloading — is a still image generated nightly at 02:30. Last generated on 09/11/2026 at 03:00.

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