Rates & market environment

The growth thermometer — and why it no longer matches the rate

The copper-gold ratio as a growth barometer against the real ten-year rate since 2003: until 2015 both measures ran in parallel, since 2022 the relationship has inverted — the real rate rises, the ratio falls.

Growth · Rates

The growth thermometer — and why it no longer matches the rate

Copper depends on industry, gold on the need to hedge. Their ratio is therefore seen as a growth barometer: it rises when the market expects growth. For a long time it moved with the real rate — both react to the same growth expectations. Since 2022 they have diverged.

Until 2015 the two measures ran largely in parallel (until 2015: 0.61). Since 2022 the relationship is inverted (-0.67): the real rate has risen sharply while the copper-gold ratio has fallen — most recently to 1.07 against an average of 1.57. Anyone inferring growth expectations from rates today infers in the wrong direction.

Own calculation: copper and gold closing prices in USD (month-end) against the real 10-year yield of the U.S. Treasury (TIPS). Period 2003-01 to 2026-11, 287 months; correlations on daily values (until 2015 0.61 bei n=3,244 · 2016–2021 0.20 bei n=1,494 · since 2022 -0.67 bei n=1,203). The ratio is multiplied by 10,000 to stay readable: copper is quoted per pound, gold per ounce — the absolute number means nothing on its own, only its movement does. ⚠️ A low ratio does not necessarily mean “weak growth”: it can just as well come from a gold rally, since the denominator moves too. Both measures come from the United States; outside the dollar area the exchange rate and a different inflation rate come on top. Correlation is not causation — and as the three periods show, here it is not even stable. The series starts in 2003 with the real rate series.

Real Interest Rate & Volatility

Where the numbers come from

This chart is calculated from our own price recordings. It is recalculated twice a day — after the daily close and after the London reference price at 16:30.

our own measurement Our own daily closing prices for the metals — new values every trading day
external source US Treasury — real yield curve (TIPS) — new values every trading day

The Chart view shows the most recently calculated state. The Image version — including the one for sharing and downloading — is a still image generated nightly at 02:30. Last generated on 09/11/2026 at 03:00.

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