As of: 2026-08-22
Each bar shows the individual value of an indicator (0--100). The percentage on the right indicates its weight in the overall score.
Red values signal fear, green values signal greed. The overall score is the weighted average of all indicators.
The chart shows the Fear & Greed Index over time. The colored zones mark the sentiment areas: Red = Fear, Yellow = Neutral, Green = Greed.
Navigation: Select the time period using the buttons (1M to Max). Hover over the chart to see the score on a specific day.
The palladium reading rests on six technical indicators and delivers a daily figure between 0 and 100. What sets it apart is the market itself: liquidity is thin and Russian exports matter enormously, which is why this index visits the extremes far more often than its counterparts.
Data sources: daily closing prices, spot prices, EUR/USD exchange rates. Updated daily on trading days. This index is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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We pour our heart into keeping preciousmetalprices.com fast, clean and free — no paywalls, no clutter, just reliable facts and live prices. If it helps you, the nicest way to say thank you is to pass it on. Every share helps a fellow investor discover us and keeps the project going. 💛
How the Index Is Calculated
Six technical factors enter the daily palladium calculation. Each is converted to the uniform 0--100 scale before contributing its assigned weight, and those weights are calibrated for a market whose ordinary volatility would count as a crisis anywhere else.
Calculation Formula
Score = ∑ (Indicatori × Weighti)
Each Indicatori ranges between 0 and 100, and the sum of all weights equals 1.0.
The 6 Indicators and Their Weights
Momentum
25 %Compares the current price with the 50-day moving average (SMA50). If the price is significantly above the average, greed prevails. If below, fear dominates. A distance of more than 10% from the SMA50 indicates an exaggeration.
Volatility
25 %Compares short-term volatility (10 days) with long-term volatility (60 days). A sharp increase in short-term volatility signals nervousness and fear. Stable volatility indicates composure.
Ratio Signal
15 %Analyzes the gold/silver ratio and other metal ratios. A rising ratio (gold gains relative to silver) signals a flight to safety = fear. A falling ratio shows risk appetite = greed.
Acceleration
15 %Measures whether the current price trend is accelerating or decelerating. Increasing upward acceleration signals greed -- more and more buyers are jumping in. A slowdown may indicate a trend reversal.
ATH Distance
10 %Measures the distance to the all-time high. The closer the price is to the ATH, the greedier the sentiment. A distance of over 20% indicates resignation and fear.
USD Strength
10 %Tracks the EUR/USD trend over 20 trading days. A weakening dollar is positive for precious metals (greed). A strengthening dollar depresses prices (fear).
Note: For copper, the ratio signal is omitted (weight 0%) since no meaningful reference ratio exists. The remaining indicators are weighted more heavily accordingly.
What the Values Mean
No other metal we track spends as much of its time at the extremes. Between a market too small to absorb large orders and a supply chain running through Russia, the neutral band tends to be a brief interlude rather than a resting state.
Extreme Fear
Selling turns disorderly, usually because of substitution fear -- the prospect of carmakers switching their catalyst formulations to platinum -- or a sudden drop in vehicle production. Thin liquidity then does the rest, and every seller finds fewer buyers than the last one.
Fear
Weaker vehicle sales or evidence of further substitution towards platinum put the market on the back foot. The specialist investor base is small, and it tends to sit on its hands until a bottom has visibly formed.
Neutral
A rare equilibrium in a market that does not do equilibrium well. Production and export flows proceed to plan. The calm is genuine but fragile: with so little depth, an outside shock in either direction moves the price immediately.
Greed
Growing vehicle output or a supply interruption in Russia lifts the price, and speculators position for scarcity. Given how little depth this market has, a modest amount of buying translates into a substantial move.
Extreme Greed
Deficit meets speculation and the price goes to places that later look absurd. The 2019--2021 tripling is the reference point, and it is a seductive one -- but that particular episode ended in one of the harshest corrections the sector has seen.
Historical Patterns
Palladium is the most volatile of the precious metals and its sentiment history reads accordingly. Dependence on a handful of suppliers, combined with a market too small to absorb surprises, produces swings that would be extraordinary anywhere else:
Substitution Fear and Falling Demand
Since peaking above $3,000 in March 2022 palladium has been in a sustained decline, with the index repeatedly registering below 15. Three forces are behind it: carmakers substituting cheaper platinum into their catalysts, softer vehicle production, and the gradual fading of the Russian supply premium as the market learned to live with sanctions.
Deficits and the Price Explosion
The 2019--2022 rally is the most extreme in modern precious metals history: a tripling from $1,000 to above $3,000, with the index sustaining readings over 85 for months. Chronic deficits -- 70 % of supply comes from Russia and South Africa -- met recovering vehicle production after the pandemic. The episode demonstrated how long extreme greed can persist when the market is genuinely short of metal.
Palladium Read Against Gold
Palladium frequently reads opposite to gold. A geopolitical crisis lifts gold on safety demand whilst hurting palladium through recession fear: fewer vehicles built means fewer catalysts required. That negative correlation is what gives palladium a genuine diversification role in a metals portfolio.
Conclusion: The lesson of palladium's history is about extremes. The most spectacular advances produced the most brutal declines. Acting contrarian in this market demands patience and discipline well beyond what gold or silver require.
Contrarian Investing
Contrarian positions in palladium are for investors who already know what they are doing. The swings that create the opportunity are the same swings that can remove your capital.
Buy When There Is Fear
A palladium reading below 20 signals either substitution fear or oversupply, and the whole question is which. Cyclical weakness -- a soft vehicle market -- has rewarded contrarians consistently. Structural change, meaning permanent reformulation towards platinum, has not: in that case the fear is simply correct.
Be Cautious When There Is Greed
The palladium greed phases of 2019 to 2022 rested on real, measurable deficits, which made selling into them dangerous: the fundamentals genuinely supported the price. The distinction to draw in this metal is between speculative greed and greed that the supply balance justifies -- they look identical on the index and behave entirely differently.
Conclusion: This is not a metal for passive contrarians. Acting counter-cyclically in palladium means following vehicle production and Russian export policy closely, because the supply balance, not sentiment, determines the outcome.
Limitations & Pitfalls
The tightest and most geopolitically exposed market in the sector poses particular difficulties for any technical measure:
- ◆ An extremely tight market — This is the smallest of the four principal precious metals markets. One large transaction or a single hedge fund repositioning can move the price by several per cent, and the index cannot tell that apart from a genuine change in sentiment.
- ◆ Russian supply — Roughly 40 % of global output comes from Russia. Sanctions, export controls or geopolitical escalation change the market in a day, and a technical measure is structurally incapable of anticipating any of it.
- ◆ Substitution risk that runs one way — The gradual replacement of palladium by platinum in catalysts is a one-way trend that lowers the fair value of the metal. A fear signal driven by substitution may be entirely correct, and need not mean-revert at all.
- ◆ The vehicle cycle dominates — Over 80 % of palladium demand comes from car manufacturing. What the index largely measures, therefore, is expectations for the automotive cycle rather than sentiment towards precious metals.
Conclusion: The palladium reading is worth having, but the most geopolitically exposed metal in the sector also requires ongoing attention to Russian export policy, vehicle production figures and the progress of substitution.
Frequently Asked Questions About the Fear & Greed Index
When is the palladium reading recalculated?
Every trading day, after the close. Palladium is the most volatile market in the complex and daily readings can shift by 5 to 10 points, well beyond anything normal in gold or silver.
Why is palladium so frequently at an extreme?
A small market plus heavy dependence on Russian supply produces swings that reach the extremes with unusual frequency. Palladium spends more time in the Extreme Fear and Extreme Greed bands than any other metal here; the neutral band is the exception rather than the rule.
How much does the switch to platinum matter?
Manufacturers have been reformulating petrol catalysts towards cheaper platinum for several years. That is a structural drag on palladium demand, and it means a fear signal in this metal may be entirely justified rather than an overreaction due to correct itself.
What does the situation in Russia do to the reading?
Russia supplies roughly 40 % of the world's palladium, so sanctions or delivery disruption push the price up sharply and the reading towards greed. When tensions ease, supply concerns unwind and the index falls back just as quickly.
Is palladium suitable for a private investor?
It is not a beginner's metal. Extreme volatility, thin liquidity and an identifiable structural threat from substitution combine to make it demanding. The index helps experienced investors with timing, but the fundamental risks require market knowledge that gold and silver do not.
Why can you not set up a palladium savings plan?
The market is too volatile and the demand too small for providers to build a product around. Exchange-traded commodities on palladium do exist, but they come with wider spreads and thinner liquidity than the gold and silver equivalents.