As of: 2026-08-22
Each bar shows the individual value of an indicator (0--100). The percentage on the right indicates its weight in the overall score.
Red values signal fear, green values signal greed. The overall score is the weighted average of all indicators.
The chart shows the Fear & Greed Index over time. The colored zones mark the sentiment areas: Red = Fear, Yellow = Neutral, Green = Greed.
Navigation: Select the time period using the buttons (1M to Max). Hover over the chart to see the score on a specific day.
Five indicators -- the ratio component is dropped, having no meaningful reference for copper -- produce a daily score between 0 and 100. Copper is an industrial input first and foremost, so the reading tracks economic releases, the Chinese purchasing managers' surveys and warehouse inventories. Read it as a confidence gauge for the real economy.
Data sources: daily closing prices, spot prices, EUR/USD exchange rates. Updated daily on trading days. This index is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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We pour our heart into keeping preciousmetalprices.com fast, clean and free — no paywalls, no clutter, just reliable facts and live prices. If it helps you, the nicest way to say thank you is to pass it on. Every share helps a fellow investor discover us and keeps the project going. 💛
How the Index Is Calculated
Copper works with five inputs rather than six: there is no established reference ratio for it, so that signal is left out entirely. The remaining factors are normalised onto the common 0--100 scale and weighted, with momentum and volatility carrying the larger share.
Calculation Formula
Score = ∑ (Indicatori × Weighti)
Each Indicatori ranges between 0 and 100, and the sum of all weights equals 1.0.
The 6 Indicators and Their Weights
Momentum
25 %Compares the current price with the 50-day moving average (SMA50). If the price is significantly above the average, greed prevails. If below, fear dominates. A distance of more than 10% from the SMA50 indicates an exaggeration.
Volatility
25 %Compares short-term volatility (10 days) with long-term volatility (60 days). A sharp increase in short-term volatility signals nervousness and fear. Stable volatility indicates composure.
Ratio Signal
15 %Analyzes the gold/silver ratio and other metal ratios. A rising ratio (gold gains relative to silver) signals a flight to safety = fear. A falling ratio shows risk appetite = greed.
Acceleration
15 %Measures whether the current price trend is accelerating or decelerating. Increasing upward acceleration signals greed -- more and more buyers are jumping in. A slowdown may indicate a trend reversal.
ATH Distance
10 %Measures the distance to the all-time high. The closer the price is to the ATH, the greedier the sentiment. A distance of over 20% indicates resignation and fear.
USD Strength
10 %Tracks the EUR/USD trend over 20 trading days. A weakening dollar is positive for precious metals (greed). A strengthening dollar depresses prices (fear).
Note: For copper, the ratio signal is omitted (weight 0%) since no meaningful reference ratio exists. The remaining indicators are weighted more heavily accordingly.
What the Values Mean
Copper's bands map more or less directly onto the global business cycle. Extreme fear here has historically arrived ahead of recessions; extreme greed accompanies investment booms and periods when Chinese demand is running hot.
Extreme Fear
Copper panic is recession panic. When "Dr. Copper" breaks down, the market is pricing a genuine global slowdown: Chinese demand is doubted, warehouse stocks build up and nobody wants to be caught holding inventory into a downturn.
Fear
Soft purchasing managers' surveys, growing inventories or dollar strength weigh on the price. Investors whose thesis rests on electrification and grid investment often treat this band as their accumulation window.
Neutral
Normal service. Supply and demand are roughly matched and the economic releases contain no surprises. The market waits -- for a Chinese stimulus announcement, a mine disruption, an infrastructure package -- to be told which way to go.
Greed
Strong industrial production, an electric vehicle boom or Chinese stimulus lifts demand, and the "metal of the energy transition" narrative amplifies whatever the fundamentals are doing.
Extreme Greed
Forecasts of structural shortage driven by electrification dominate the coverage, and speculative positioning on the futures exchanges reaches records. Such phases can persist far longer than seems reasonable. They do not persist indefinitely.
Historical Patterns
The copper index is the closest thing the commodity world has to a global confidence survey. "Dr. Copper" has a long record of diagnosing upturns and downturns before the official statistics catch up:
Recession Signals and Collapsing Demand
Copper fell from $10,700 to under $7,000 a tonne over the summer of 2022 -- the steepest decline since the 2008 banking crisis. China's zero-Covid restrictions, rising interest rates and widespread recession fear all pulled in the same direction, and the index dropped into single figures. Recovery began only once Beijing started dismantling the restrictions.
The Green Supercycle Story
Copper cleared $11,000 a tonne in early 2024, lifted by electric vehicle demand, solar installation and infrastructure spending across several continents. The index moved into extreme greed and the "green supercycle" story pulled speculative money onto the futures exchanges. Corrections came and went without the underlying optimism giving way.
Copper and the Business Cycle
Copper and gold routinely part company. Crisis lifts gold and depresses copper, for obvious reasons. The signal worth watching is copper turning up before gold turns down, which has been a serviceable indication of economic recovery -- and the reverse, copper weakening as gold strengthens, which has warned of slowdowns.
Conclusion: Copper takes its instructions from factories, not from central banks. Its index is less a timing tool for investors than an early warning system for the economy at large.
Contrarian Investing
Copper gives the contrarian something the precious metals cannot: a reading tied to an identifiable cycle. Extreme fear in copper has generally coincided with the trough of an economic cycle rather than a permanent impairment.
Buy When There Is Fear
Copper below 20 has lined up with global recession troughs with striking regularity. Buyers at the extremes of autumn 2008, March 2020 and summer 2022 saw gains of 40 to 80 % over the following twelve months. The catch is timing: a recession can push copper lower for a good while before the turn arrives.
Be Cautious When There Is Greed
Copper above 80 generally comes with an infrastructure story attached: Chinese stimulus, an electric vehicle boom, a global investment package. What to watch is the futures market, where speculative length routinely runs ahead of anything happening in the physical trade. That gap is the warning.
Conclusion: Copper rewards contrarians who keep one eye on the business cycle. As a timing instrument it suits long-horizon reallocation far better than short-term trading.
Limitations & Pitfalls
Copper is an industrial commodity without a meaningful investment constituency, and that shapes what its index can and cannot tell you:
- ◆ No ratio signal exists — Copper has no counterpart to the gold-silver ratio, so that indicator is omitted entirely and the remaining five carry more weight. The result is a signal built on a narrower base than the precious metals versions.
- ◆ Chinese dominance — China consumes more than half the world's copper. One announcement on stimulus or property regulation can move the price 5 to 10 %, and the index only registers it on the following day.
- ◆ Inventory games — LME and SHFE stock levels exert a heavy influence on the price. Strategic building or drawing of inventory distorts both the price and the reading without any change in real consumption.
- ◆ The energy transition narrative — Future demand from electric vehicles, solar installation and grid investment is frequently priced in well ahead of delivery. The index cannot separate demand that exists from demand that is merely expected.
Conclusion: Treat the copper index primarily as an economic indicator. For investment purposes it belongs alongside PMI data, industrial production figures and LME stock levels rather than on its own.
Frequently Asked Questions About the Fear & Greed Index
When is the copper reading produced?
Daily, from spot prices. Copper has no fix like the precious metals, so the London Metal Exchange closing price serves as the reference instead -- fittingly, the LME sits in the same city. Weekends and holidays hold the previous trading day's value.
Why is the ratio indicator missing for copper?
The ratio component compares one metal against another, as with gold-silver or gold-platinum. Copper has no established counterpart that generates meaningful sentiment information, so the indicator is dropped and the remaining five are weighted more heavily -- momentum and volatility at 30 % each.
Can the copper reading be used to read the economy?
That is arguably its main use. "Dr. Copper" has one of the better records among early economic warning signals: a reading falling into extreme fear has frequently preceded a downturn, and a reading turning up ahead of the official statistics has frequently preceded a recovery.
How much does China move the copper reading?
Enormously, since China takes more than half of world consumption. Chinese PMI data, property market conditions and infrastructure spending all feed straight through to the price. A single stimulus announcement from Beijing can move the reading by 10 to 15 points.
Is the copper reading useful for equity investors?
Indirectly. Copper sentiment tracks global industrial conditions closely, so extreme fear in copper is usually also a warning about industrial equities. Some investors run it alongside conventional risk gauges such as the VIX as a second opinion.
What does electrification do to the copper reading?
Over the long term, electric vehicles, solar installations and grid rebuilding all point demand upwards. Over the short term, the "green copper" narrative also produces speculative excess that can carry the index into extreme greed whilst actual consumption lags well behind.