As of: 2026-08-22
Each bar shows the individual value of an indicator (0--100). The percentage on the right indicates its weight in the overall score.
Red values signal fear, green values signal greed. The overall score is the weighted average of all indicators.
The chart shows the Fear & Greed Index over time. The colored zones mark the sentiment areas: Red = Fear, Yellow = Neutral, Green = Greed.
Navigation: Select the time period using the buttons (1M to Max). Hover over the chart to see the score on a specific day.
A daily figure between 0 and 100 is derived from six technical indicators. The distinguishing feature of this market is its narrowness: liquidity is limited and Russian exports account for a substantial share of supply, so the reading reaches its extremes considerably more often than elsewhere in the sector.
Data sources: daily closing prices, spot prices, EUR/USD exchange rates. Updated daily on trading days. This index is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Getting something out of what you see and read?
We put our whole heart into keeping preciousmetalprices.com fast, tidy and free — no paywalls, no clutter, just facts and live prices you can trust. If it’s any help to you, the nicest way to say thanks is to pass it along. Every share helps another investor find us and keeps the whole project ticking over. 💛
Getting something out of what you see and read?
We put our whole heart into keeping preciousmetalprices.com fast, tidy and free — no paywalls, no clutter, just facts and live prices you can trust. If it’s any help to you, the nicest way to say thanks is to pass it along. Every share helps another investor find us and keeps the whole project ticking over. 💛
How the Index Is Calculated
The daily palladium calculation takes in six technical factors, each transformed onto the uniform 0--100 scale before contributing its weight to the total. The weighting is adjusted for a market in which ordinary volatility would qualify as a crisis in gold.
Calculation Formula
Score = ∑ (Indicatori × Weighti)
Each Indicatori ranges between 0 and 100, and the sum of all weights equals 1.0.
The 6 Indicators and Their Weights
Momentum
25 %Compares the current price with the 50-day moving average (SMA50). If the price is significantly above the average, greed prevails. If below, fear dominates. A distance of more than 10% from the SMA50 indicates an exaggeration.
Volatility
25 %Compares short-term volatility (10 days) with long-term volatility (60 days). A sharp increase in short-term volatility signals nervousness and fear. Stable volatility indicates composure.
Ratio Signal
15 %Analyzes the gold/silver ratio and other metal ratios. A rising ratio (gold gains relative to silver) signals a flight to safety = fear. A falling ratio shows risk appetite = greed.
Acceleration
15 %Measures whether the current price trend is accelerating or decelerating. Increasing upward acceleration signals greed -- more and more buyers are jumping in. A slowdown may indicate a trend reversal.
ATH Distance
10 %Measures the distance to the all-time high. The closer the price is to the ATH, the greedier the sentiment. A distance of over 20% indicates resignation and fear.
USD Strength
10 %Tracks the EUR/USD trend over 20 trading days. A weakening dollar is positive for precious metals (greed). A strengthening dollar depresses prices (fear).
Note: For copper, the ratio signal is omitted (weight 0%) since no meaningful reference ratio exists. The remaining indicators are weighted more heavily accordingly.
What the Values Mean
Palladium reaches the outer bands more often than any other metal here. A market this narrow, combined with geopolitical dependencies, means the neutral band functions as a brief pause rather than a resting position.
Extreme Fear
Selling becomes disorderly, usually prompted by substitution fear -- manufacturers moving to platinum -- or by a genuine collapse in vehicle production. Thin liquidity then compounds every step downwards, as each seller finds fewer buyers than the one before.
Fear
Softer vehicle sales, or fresh evidence of substitution towards platinum, put the market under pressure. The investor base is small and specialised, and it generally waits for a confirmed bottom rather than anticipating one.
Neutral
A temporary balance in a market with little talent for balance. Production and exports run to schedule. The quiet is real but precarious -- with so little depth, an external shock moves the price at once, in whichever direction it arrives.
Greed
Rising vehicle output or an interruption to Russian supply lifts the price, and speculators position for scarcity. In a market with this little depth, a limited amount of buying produces a disproportionate move.
Extreme Greed
A genuine deficit meets speculative money and the price reaches levels that appear indefensible in retrospect. The 2019--2021 tripling remains the reference point, and it is a tempting one -- but that episode concluded with one of the most severe corrections the sector has recorded.
Historical Patterns
Palladium is the most volatile metal in the complex and its sentiment history reflects that without exaggeration. A concentrated supply base and a market too small to absorb surprises together produce swings of a kind that would be remarkable anywhere else:
Losing Ground to Platinum
Palladium has declined steadily since peaking above $3,000 in March 2022, with the index repeatedly recording values below 15. Three factors account for it: manufacturers substituting cheaper platinum into catalysts, weaker vehicle production, and the gradual erosion of the supply premium as the market adjusted to sanctions.
Scarcity Sends the Price Vertical
The rally from 2019 to 2022 is the most extreme in recent precious metals history: a tripling from $1,000 to over $3,000, with the index sustaining readings above 85 for months at a time. Chronic deficits -- some 70 % of supply originates in Russia and South Africa -- met recovering vehicle production after the pandemic. It showed how long extreme greed can persist when the shortage is genuine.
The Opposite of Gold
Palladium frequently reads in opposition to gold. A geopolitical crisis lifts gold on safe-haven demand whilst damaging palladium through recession fear, since fewer vehicles built means fewer catalysts required. That inverse relationship is what gives palladium a genuine diversifying function within a metals holding.
Conclusion: The lesson palladium teaches concerns extremes: the most spectacular advances produced the most punishing declines. Contrarian positioning here demands patience and discipline of an order that gold and silver never require.
Contrarian Investing
Contrarian positions in palladium suit investors who already understand the market thoroughly. The volatility that creates the opportunity is the same volatility that can eliminate the capital.
Buy When There Is Fear
A palladium reading beneath 20 reflects either substitution fear or oversupply, and everything depends on which. Where the weakness is merely cyclical, meaning nothing worse than a soft vehicle market, buying against the crowd has paid off repeatedly. Structural change, meaning permanent reformulation towards platinum, has not, because in that case the fear is simply accurate.
Be Cautious When There Is Greed
The palladium greed phases between 2019 and 2022 were built on real, measurable deficits, which made selling into them hazardous -- the fundamentals genuinely supported the price. The distinction to make in this metal is between speculative greed and greed the supply balance justifies. They look identical on the index and behave entirely differently.
Conclusion: Passive contrarians should leave this one alone. Acting counter-cyclically in palladium means following vehicle production figures and Russian export policy attentively, because the supply balance rather than sentiment determines the outcome.
Limitations & Pitfalls
The narrowest and most geopolitically exposed market in the sector poses distinct problems for any technical measure:
- ◆ An extremely narrow market — Of the four main precious metals markets, palladium is the smallest by a considerable margin. A single large transaction, or one hedge fund changing its position, can move the price several per cent -- indistinguishable, to the index, from a genuine change in sentiment.
- ◆ Russian supply — Approximately 40 % of global output originates in Russia. Sanctions, export restrictions or geopolitical escalation can alter the market within a day, and a technical measure is structurally incapable of anticipating any of it.
- ◆ Substitution runs one way only — The progressive replacement of palladium by platinum in catalysts is a one-directional trend that lowers the metal's fair value. A fear signal arising from substitution may be entirely correct and need not revert.
- ◆ The car industry sets the tone — More than 80 % of palladium demand comes from car manufacturing, so what the index largely measures is expectations for the automotive cycle rather than sentiment towards precious metals as such.
Conclusion: The palladium score is worth having, though the most geopolitically exposed metal in the sector also demands continuous attention to Russian export policy, vehicle production data and the progress of substitution.
Frequently Asked Questions About the Fear & Greed Index
How often does the palladium score change?
On each trading day, once the London market has closed. Palladium is the most volatile market in the sector and daily readings can shift by 5 to 10 points -- far beyond anything ordinary in gold or silver.
What drives palladium to the outer bands so often?
A small market combined with heavy dependence on Russian supply produces swings that reach the extremes unusually often. Palladium spends more time in the Extreme Fear and Extreme Greed bands than any other metal here, and the neutral band is the exception rather than the rule.
Where does platinum substitution come into it?
Manufacturers have been reformulating petrol catalysts towards cheaper platinum for several years now. That constitutes a structural drag on palladium demand, which means a fear signal in this metal may be entirely warranted rather than an overreaction due to correct itself.
How do Russian supply risks feed into the score?
Russia supplies roughly 40 % of the world's palladium, so sanctions or interrupted deliveries drive the price sharply upward and the reading towards greed. When tension eases, supply concerns unwind and the index falls back with equal speed.
Should smaller investors hold palladium at all?
This is not a metal to start with. Extreme volatility, limited liquidity and an identifiable structural threat from substitution combine to make it demanding. The index assists experienced investors with timing, but the fundamental risks call for market knowledge that gold and silver do not require.
Why do providers not offer palladium plans?
The market is too volatile and demand too limited for providers to construct a product around it. Exchange-traded commodities on palladium do exist, but they carry wider spreads and thinner liquidity than the gold and silver equivalents.