How much paper sits on a year of production?
Open futures contracts on gold, silver, platinum, palladium and copper in relation to one year of world mine production: for silver, in more than every second week there is more open paper in the market than the world’s mines produce in a whole year; for the other four metals, not once.
How much paper sits on a year of production?
All open contracts of a futures exchange, converted into ounces and divided by what the world’s mines take out of the ground in a year. The bar shows the range since 2016, the line the mean, the dot the latest report. The dashed line marks a full year of production.
Only for Silver does open interest ever exceed a year of production — and not rarely, but in 51 % of all weekly reports. On average the paper there sits above 101 % of a production year, at its peak above 158 %. For the other four metals that has not once happened since 2016.
Open interest: CFTC Commitments of Traders (futures only), as of 03/11/2026; 566 weekly reports per metal from 05/01/2016. Production: U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 and earlier editions, table “World Mine Production and Reserves” — every year measured against its own production; for 2026 the 2025 figure applies (agency estimate) for lack of a newer publication. 🔴 Only the US futures exchanges are covered (COMEX/NYMEX). London’s over-the-counter trade and the LME are not included — the world paper market is therefore larger than shown here, not smaller. A holding on one reporting date is compared with an annual flow, much like market capitalisation with annual revenue; this is a comparison of scale and not a statement that this quantity of metal would have to be delivered. Futures contracts mostly serve to hedge and are overwhelmingly closed out before expiry — the COT data contain no delivery figures, which is why none are given here. Copper trades in pounds, not ounces. The figures are three days old on release (reporting date Tuesday, publication Friday).
Where the numbers come from
This chart is calculated from an external data series that we collect and store ourselves. How often the figures can change is shown for each series below.
- external source CFTC — Commitments of Traders — new values weekly (reporting date Tuesday, published Friday)
- external source USGS — Mineral Commodity Summaries, world mine production — new values annually
The Chart view shows the most recently calculated state. The Image version — including the one for sharing and downloading — is a still image generated nightly at 02:30. Last generated on 09/11/2026 at 03:07.
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