As of: 2026-05-30
Each bar shows the individual value of an indicator (0--100). The percentage on the right indicates its weight in the overall score.
Red values signal fear, green values signal greed. The overall score is the weighted average of all indicators.
The chart shows the Fear & Greed Index over time. The colored zones mark the sentiment areas: Red = Fear, Yellow = Neutral, Green = Greed.
Navigation: Select the time period using the buttons (1M to Max). Hover over the chart to see the score on a specific day.
Six technical indicators form the basis of the Palladium Fear & Greed Index, which delivers a daily value between 0 and 100. Palladium's tight market liquidity and dependence on Russian exports ensure that the index reaches extreme values more frequently than other precious metals.
Data sources: LBMA Fixing, spot prices, EUR/USD exchange rates. Updated daily on trading days. This index is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
How the Index Is Calculated
For the Palladium Fear & Greed Index, six technical factors feed into the daily calculation. Each factor is first transformed to the uniform 0--100 scale before contributing its specific weight to the overall score -- adjusted for the pronounced volatility of the palladium market.
Calculation Formula
Score = ∑ (Indicatori × Weighti)
Each Indicatori ranges between 0 and 100, and the sum of all weights equals 1.0.
The 6 Indicators and Their Weights
Momentum
25 %Compares the current price with the 50-day moving average (SMA50). If the price is significantly above the average, greed prevails. If below, fear dominates. A distance of more than 10% from the SMA50 indicates an exaggeration.
Volatility
25 %Compares short-term volatility (10 days) with long-term volatility (60 days). A sharp increase in short-term volatility signals nervousness and fear. Stable volatility indicates composure.
Ratio Signal
15 %Analyzes the gold/silver ratio and other metal ratios. A rising ratio (gold gains relative to silver) signals a flight to safety = fear. A falling ratio shows risk appetite = greed.
Acceleration
15 %Measures whether the current price trend is accelerating or decelerating. Increasing upward acceleration signals greed -- more and more buyers are jumping in. A slowdown may indicate a trend reversal.
ATH Distance
10 %Measures the distance to the all-time high. The closer the price is to the ATH, the greedier the sentiment. A distance of over 20% indicates resignation and fear.
USD Strength
10 %Tracks the EUR/USD trend over 20 trading days. A weakening dollar is positive for precious metals (greed). A strengthening dollar depresses prices (fear).
Note: For copper, the ratio signal is omitted (weight 0%) since no meaningful reference ratio exists. The remaining indicators are weighted more heavily accordingly.
What the Values Mean
Palladium jumps between extreme zones more frequently than any other precious metal. The tight market structure and geopolitical dependencies mean that neutral phases rarely last long.
Extreme Fear
Panicked sell-offs in the palladium market -- often triggered by substitution fears (switch to platinum in catalysts) or demand crashes in the automotive industry. The tight liquidity amplifies the price decline further.
Fear
Palladium under pressure: weaker auto sales or advances in substitution by platinum unsettle the market. The few specialized palladium investors hold back and wait for confirmation of a bottom.
Neutral
The tight palladium market finds a temporary equilibrium. Automotive production and Russian exports proceed as planned. In this rare calm phase, the market is particularly vulnerable to external shocks in either direction.
Greed
Palladium optimism: rising automotive production or supply disruptions from Russia drive the price. Speculators bet on supply shortages -- the thin market depth can amplify price movements rapidly.
Extreme Greed
Palladium in a frenzy: supply deficits meet speculative demand and drive the price to extreme highs. The parallels to 2019--2021 (tripling of the price) are tempting -- but precisely such phases historically ended with sharp corrections.
Historical Patterns
Palladium is the most volatile precious metal -- and its sentiment trajectory reads like a roller coaster ride. Geopolitical dependencies and an extremely tight market produce dramatic sentiment swings:
Fear from Substitution and Demand Decline
Since the peak above $3,000 in March 2022, palladium has been in an extended downtrend. The index has repeatedly registered extreme fear values below 15. Triggers: increasing substitution by cheaper platinum in catalysts, weaker automotive production and the fading of Russian supply disruptions as sanctions effects subsided.
Supply Shortages and Price Explosion
Between 2019 and 2022, palladium experienced a historic rally: the price tripled from $1,000 to over $3,000, with the index standing above 85 for months. Driven by chronic supply deficits (70% of production from Russia and South Africa) and rising automotive production after the Covid crisis. This phase demonstrated how long extreme greed phases can persist in tight markets.
Palladium as Counterpart to Gold
Palladium often shows the opposite sentiment to gold: in geopolitical crises, gold rises (safety) while palladium suffers from recession fears (fewer cars = fewer catalysts). This negative sentiment correlation makes palladium a valuable diversification instrument in a precious metals portfolio.
Conclusion: Palladium's sentiment history is a warning about extremes: the most spectacular rallies ended with the harshest corrections. Those who act contrarian here need especially great patience and discipline.
Contrarian Investing
Contrarian investing in palladium is a discipline for experienced investors: the extreme swings offer great opportunities but also significant risks.
Buy When There Is Fear
Palladium fear phases (index below 20) often signal substitution concerns or oversupply. The key question is whether the fear trigger is structural or cyclical in nature. For cyclical lows (weak auto cycle), contrarian action has historically paid off. For structural shifts (permanent substitution by platinum), the fear may be justified.
Be Cautious When There Is Greed
Palladium greed phases (index above 80) between 2019 and 2022 were driven by real supply deficits -- here, contrarian selling was risky because fundamentals supported the high price. The lesson: with palladium, you must distinguish whether greed is speculative or fundamentally justified.
Conclusion: Palladium is not a metal for passive contrarians. Those who act counter-cyclically here must closely follow the automotive industry and Russian export policy -- because with palladium, the fundamental supply situation determines the outcome more than pure sentiment.
Limitations & Pitfalls
The tightest and most geopolitically sensitive precious metals market presents particular challenges for the sentiment index:
- ◆ Extremely tight market — The palladium market is the smallest of the four major precious metals markets. Individual large transactions or hedge fund positions can move the price by several percent -- the index cannot distinguish such individual events from broader sentiment changes.
- ◆ Russia dependency — About 40% of global palladium production comes from Russia. Sanctions, export restrictions or geopolitical escalations can change the market overnight -- the technical index inherently lags behind such events.
- ◆ Asymmetric substitution risk — The potential substitution of palladium by platinum in catalysts is a long-term trend that structurally lowers the "fair" price. Fear signals can therefore be justified and need not lead to mean reversion.
- ◆ Automotive cycle dominates — Over 80% of palladium demand comes from the automotive industry. The index therefore strongly reflects expectations for the automotive cycle -- not the precious metals market in the narrower sense.
Conclusion: Palladium's sentiment index is a valuable tool, but the most geopolitically risky precious metal additionally requires constant monitoring of Russian export policy, automotive production numbers and substitution progress.
Frequently Asked Questions About the Fear & Greed Index
How often is the palladium index updated?
The calculation occurs each trading day after the LBMA fixing. Since palladium is the most volatile precious metals market, daily values can fluctuate by 5--10 points -- significantly more than gold or silver.
Why does the palladium index so often stand at extreme values?
Palladium's tight market and geopolitical dependence on Russia lead to above-average frequency of extreme swings. The index spends more time in the "Extreme Fear" and "Extreme Greed" zones than any other metal -- the neutral zone is more the exception.
What role does substitution by platinum play?
Automakers are increasingly replacing palladium with cheaper platinum in gasoline catalysts. This trend puts long-term downward pressure on palladium demand and can generate fear signals in the index that are fundamentally justified and need not lead to mean reversion.
How does the Ukraine conflict affect the index?
Russia supplies about 40% of the world's palladium. Sanctions or supply disruptions can drive the price sharply and push the index toward greed. Conversely, an easing of the situation can resolve supply concerns and cause the index to drop.
Is palladium a sensible investment for retail investors?
Palladium is not a metal for beginners due to its extreme volatility, low liquidity and structural substitution risks. The Fear & Greed Index helps experienced investors with timing -- but the fundamental risks require deeper market knowledge than gold or silver.
Why are there no palladium savings plan offerings?
Most providers do not offer palladium savings plans because the market is too volatile and demand too low. ETCs on palladium exist but have higher spreads and lower liquidity than gold or silver products.